Saturday, April 07, 2007

Feed budgeting

Last discussion group talked about feed budgeting - a good reminder that at this time of year the emphasis needs to be on next season, not on maximising milk production in the remaining seven weeks of this season.

As the season draws to a close, the attention I pay to factors that will affect next season's production intensifies. I don't do a formal feed budget, in part because grass growth rates through April, May and June are certain of being one thing: unpredictable. My system is more one of continual monitoring through April and May and quick response.

So far this season I've made a few decisions/ changed a few things that will improve my ability to plan for next calving:
1) In March I had all the suspect late or empty cows pregnancy diagnosed by the vet.
From this information, I decided which cows were to be culled or sold, knew how many in-calf heifers would be brought home and hence came to a number of cows to carry through to calving.
It came to 153. I could have continued picking out cows to sell, but decided to stop there, at 3.4 cows per ha for next year. The Jersey component of the herd will substantially increase, easing the per cow pressure on the feed supply. It's a modest stocking rate for a Waikato farm, but pushing the boundaries of sensible in this area.
I'm confident both of my ability to manage a highly stocked farm, and to make the decision to sell cows before a feed pinch. Since I didn't PD the whole herd, it's possible that one or two more cows may show up empty, or slip during the winter.
2) At the beginning of April I grazed the area on the other side of the road, then dropped it out of the grazing round. I've just checked the weather, plan to spread urea over there with the next lot of rain and beging using it when the cows are dried off - between mid-May and the beginning of June. This area represents a little less than a quarter of the farm and should supply four - five weeks grazing for dry cows.
3) Last week the stock agent came to see the 'for sale' cows. They're still here, still being milked, but getting them off the farm is only a phone-call and a day or two away if need be. Analysing the situation right now, it looks like they need to be gone in a little over a week.
4) I've decided that the remainder of the farm needs to be on a 28-day round for the rest of the milking season, so that the cows are going into a reasonable length of grass. I've also decided that I want to leave myself 30 - 40 bales of silage for the spring, to feed in August and early September. It'll be the first time I've gone into a new season with supplement on hand, but a move that will make grazing decisions easier after calving - effectively pushing some of the surplus from this year's understocking into next year's increased demand.
I could plan on a specific grass cover that I don't want to drop below, but at this stage it's not necessary - with the current growth I've got a guaranteed four weeks winter grazing across the road and that is time enough for even short-grazed pasture to build up a reasonable cover. In a few weeks I'll revisit that decision if I think the grass cover on the main farm is dropping too low.
5) Tomorrow morning I'll be looking critically at the herd as they pass through the shed, and everything that's close to a condition score 4 and calving in July or August will be marked for once a day milking only. If there's a lot of them I'd make a second herd - but for the most part the herd is now at CS 4.5 or above. The emphasis now is keeping them at that. I aim to dry the cows off at CS 4.5 and expect them to gain half a condition score during winter - unless they are September or October calvers, in which case I don't worry so much about their weight.
6) Also tomorrow, I plan to keep feeding silage at the same rate (2 bales per day) but cut the grazing area back to maintain the 28-day rotation with a quarter of the farm dropped out.
7) The calves are due to leave the farm at the beginning of May, while the in-calf heifers will not arrive until the end of that month.

Over the next few weeks I plan to:
1) Remove the cull cows and sale cows from the herd.
2) Apply urea while the grass is still in high growth phase to boost winter feed.
3) Keep monitoring cow condition score and grass height and putting cows on once a day or drying them off in batches, if either are dropping.
4) Plan to have the remaining twice a day milkers on once a day near the beginning of May.
5) Plan to dry the whole herd during the second half of May - taking especial note of the early calvers, who will need at least seven weeks winter holiday.
6) Monitor silage available and used, to ensure the required amount is saved for spring.
7) Check the expected calving profile, to enable a good guesstimate of how much feed needs to be on hand during the early calving period.
8) Check the in-calf heifers three or four weeks before they come home, on the remote possibility that they are losing condition and need extra feed or brought home early.
9) Stop looking in the vat! Milk production at this time of year is less important than having the cows and farm in good order for the new season.
10) Be prepared to change everything at a moment's notice - no decision can be set in stone so firm that response to new information/conditions is made difficult.

It's not a feed budget, but the principles are the same - set the goals (153 cows calving from 21 July at conditon score five onto pasture averaging, say, 2300kgDM/ha), decide what needs to happen to meet that goal and then observe closely - monitor continually to ensure that an advatage gained early in May, for example, isn't being eroded by milking on for too long. As long as the goal still looks achievable, you're heading in the right direction. Start to worry that the grass cover might be too low at the start of calving and you've probably already pushed production a smidgen too far - act immediately to get back on track.
Previous year's grass growth and weather information are a good guide, but they won't tell you what's going to happen this year - hence, if decisions are based on estimated information it still takes constant monitoring to be sure of meeting your goals, not just making the decisions and going to sleep (unless you really don't care about this year's production and decide to stop milking on 1 April and grow fat cows over the autumn and winter).

In the spring, the difference betwen a deficit and a surplus is often around two days. It's the same at this time of year - the difference between meeting the feed demand next spring and missing it can be as little as two or three days of feeding the cows for milk production when they should have been dried off. But unlike in the spring when the grass is right in front of you, at this time of year it's a small difference magnified over a winter's growth. There's no room for complacency in the approach to the winter holidays.

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